- Recurrent disasters are amplifying vulnerabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean, disproportionately affecting the poorest households.
- Adaptive social protection is key to anticipating and responding to shocks, not only to reduce poverty but also to build resilience.
- A maturity model developed by the IDB to measure the level of development of such adaptive systems in countries shows progress, but also important gaps, especially in the use of data, coverage, and anticipatory action.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) faces a triple challenge: growing social demands, governments with very limited fiscal space, and low economic growth. These factors reinforce each other and are exacerbated by an increasingly complex risk environment, where disasters, extreme environmental conditions, and economic, health, and migration crises act as recurrent shocks that amplify existing vulnerabilities.
Droughts, floods, and hurricanes are generating significant economic losses, damage to infrastructure, and increasing food insecurity. These events disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable households, deepening structural inequalities and limiting opportunities for those facing high levels of labor informality.
In this context, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) supports countries in the region in strengthening more adaptive social protection systems, capable of anticipating, responding to, and protecting populations from disasters and other extreme events, as an essential condition for building long-term resilience and well-being.
Over the past two decades, the region has made notable progress in consolidating its social protection systems, particularly through the expansion of non-contributory programs that have improved coverage among the most vulnerable households. However, structural challenges remain: institutions that operate in a fragmented manner, population groups excluded from coverage, gaps between benefits received by those contributing to social security and those relying on tax-financed programs, and the need to ensure the financial sustainability of interventions.
The COVID-19 pandemic marked a turning point: it showed that social protection not only helps reduce poverty but also serves as the first line of defense against systemic crises. Countries with more developed systems were able to respond more quickly and effectively, deploying cash transfers, unemployment insurance, and care services that cushioned the impact on households.
Today, investing in adaptive social protection means moving toward more flexible, inclusive systems that are better prepared for the future. It is not only about responding to emergencies, but also about anticipating and managing them in a cost-effective way, strengthening the resilience and sustainability of social policies across the region.
To address this question, the IDB developed the Adaptive Social Protection Maturity Model, a tool that assesses countries’ level of preparedness and response capacity in emergencies, while strengthening household resilience and adaptation to disasters and other adverse events.
The model offers a comprehensive view of social protection systems in the region, including contributory programs, non-contributory programs, and care services. It also incorporates, in a cross-cutting manner, the management of natural hazards and other extreme events, as well as the role of digital transformation as key factors to improve efficiency, interoperability, and institutional flexibility.
The analytical framework is structured around seven interrelated dimensions, which together make it possible to diagnose the maturity level of each system:
- Context
- Governance and Financing
- Coverage and Adaptation of Services and Programs
- Infostructure and Infrastructure
- Management Capacity and Intersectoral Coordination
- Services and Access Points for Citizens
- Informed Social Protection, understood as the capacity to use data—including data from climate information systems and early warning systems—to guide preparedness and response in adaptive social protection.
The results show that, on average, 13 countries in the region reach a 54% level of maturity in adaptive social protection. The highest levels are observed in Brazil (71%), Chile (70%), the Dominican Republic (64%), and Peru (63%). While these results reflect important progress, no country exceeds 80%, indicating that significant gaps remain in strengthening these systems.
The dimensions with the greatest progress are management capacity and inter-institutional coordination (65%), and governance and financing (62%), driven by accumulated experience in implementing cash transfer programs and the recent development of regulatory frameworks and national strategies for adaptive social protection.
In contrast, the areas with the lowest levels of progress are informed social protection (42%) and coverage and adaptation of services and programs (44%). In these dimensions, significant gaps persist in data use, integration with early warning systems, and the expansion of regular program coverage, particularly unemployment insurance and care services.
Advancing toward adaptive social protection systems requires sustained progress across all seven components of the model, especially in the use of data to anticipate and prepare responses before shocks occur. In this regard, the Dominican Republic sets a precedent by systematically using information from its social registry to trigger support in advance.
While social registries have been fundamental tools, there is still much to be done in using climate information, coordinating with early warning systems, and strengthening damage and needs assessment mechanisms activated when disasters occur.
In summary, adaptive social protection in LAC is still in an early stage of consolidation. The pandemic accelerated its development, but differences across countries remain significant. The challenge ahead is to strengthen resilience before disasters occur, improve adaptation to natural hazards, and promote anticipatory action to build truly adaptive social protection systems capable of protecting those who need it most.
If you would like to learn how countries can move toward stronger and more prepared systems for future risks, consult the results panel for 13 countries of the Adaptive Social Protection Maturity Model here and the regional report here.
Keywords:
Social Protection