From New York and Washington to London and Santiago, metro and other mass transportation systems have long been vulnerable to people who jump turnstiles, avoid ticket collectors, and engage in other kinds of fare evasion that can lead to tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue losses each year andevenaccidental death.TransMilenio, the world\'s largest bus rapid system (BRT) and amajor benefittoBogotá\'sproductivity,is no exception. In 2019,faredodging onTransMileniostood at an estimated 15% oraround 222 billion Colombian pesos(aboutUS$65 million).Theyear before12 people died trying to sneak ontoTransMileniobuses.
The challenge for policymakers is not only how to better employ traditional methodsof control, including physical barriers, cameras and other kinds of monitoring to reduce the problem,but alsobehavioralsciencesto change the way the system\'s users make decisions. It isinusinginnovative ideas and solutions to positively affect citizens\'behavior.
ABehavioralSciences Initiative in Bogotá
That is whatMoviLabBogotá, the city’innovation laboratory for mobility, sought to achieve in November 2020 when it launched the Mobility Challenge, conveningresearch teams atColombian universities tohelpcurbfare evasion. The initiativeledby the Mayor\'s Office ofBogotá andsupported byTransMilenio,selectedfive research teams from UniversidaddelosAndes, and ICESI,Rosario and La Sabana universities.Theteams thendesigned pilot interventionswith the support and methodological guidance of the Behavioral Economics Group of the IDB,theCitizen CultureDirectionandTransMilenio. Based on behavioral sciencesand citizens’ culture insights, the proposals were presentedbefore a panelconsisting ofTransMilenio, the Mayor\'s office andtransport specialistslikeNUMO andDespaciowho thenselected the winning interventions that wouldmove into the testingstage.
The challenge wasimmense. As we know, rationality is limited.The decisions we take every day are governed by hundreds ofbehavioralbiases.We might turn off our alarm clocks multiple timeswhenweknow wemust get up or continue to eat long after we are full.Indeed,behavioralbiasesoftenlead us to make decisions that harm ourwell-being and that of society, includingthe financing of the public transport systems so crucial to our lives and those of our fellow citizens.
People, of course,evade fares for many reasons, includinga perception that theprice of the ticketistoohigh;angeratthe system\'s operational problems; a lack of feeling ofidentification with the system;inaccurate beliefs about its ownership and financing; andoften, poverty.Theymay evenassociatea metro or BRT, likeTransMilenio,with a government administration or a politician anddodge the fare toregisteraprotest.
The Role ofBehavioralBiases in Fare Dodging
Behavioralbiasesoftenplay a significant role.In a phenomenon known asoptimism bias,which involves underestimatingthe possibility ofabadoutcome and overestimatingthe probability ofagoodone, peopledownplay the chancesof being caught by the police and punished.They may also not know of any cases of people having been caught and, for that reason, believe that punishment is unlikely. This is known as the availability heuristic, where people estimate the probability of a future event based on representative cases that come to mind.Finally,theymaysuffer from a form of instant gratification, where theyprioritize the short-term savings ofnot paying a ticket over the long-term benefits of improving the systems\' quality through higher revenues. This is known as present bias: thechoosingofa short-term gain over a bigger one in the future.
Whatever the case, integratingan understanding ofthese and otherbehavioralbiases into the design of public policies is key. Such biases are systematic, and we cancorrect them with simple interventions that redirect decision-makingina more positive direction.
Testing Interventions
Threeprioritizedproposalsare currently beingrefined with support from,theCitizen Culture Direction,TransMilenioS.A.andthe IDB\'sBehavioralEconomics Groupunder the coordination ofMovilabBogotá. These will then betested in the field to evaluate their effectiveness.The hope is that they will lead to interventions, including high-impact communication strategies, that change behavior.
Fare evasionis a menace to the financingofTransMilenioand other vital mass transit systems and represents a risk of injury and even death to people who engage in it. Behavioral sciences offeruspotential solutions, and we should seize them to reduce the problem to a minimum.