Despite the global pandemic, 2020 is an extremely important year for the global climate agenda. Under the Paris Agreement, 2020 is the year for signatory countries to submit their new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) by 2030,whichconsiderhigher levels of ambition.
It is also the year in which the formal implementation of the Paris Agreement begins and in whichcountries are invited to presenttheirLong-Term Strategiesfor Decarbonization (LTS).
LTSs are instruments that allow countries to define the technological pathways to decarbonize their economies and the institutional and public policy arrangements to implement them. Likewise, it allows anticipating the challenges of decarbonization and designing strategies in early stages to ensure ajusttransition to those who could be affected by the transformation.
DevelopinganLTS is urgent.Thescience is clear about the need to achievenet-zeroemissions by 2050 to avoidglobal heatingabove 1.5degreesCelsiusandthe point of no return this milestone represents.WhileLTSwere initially devised as decarbonization strategiesto reduce emissions, many countries are including long-term adaptation strategies inthemas well.
Decarbonizing comes withmanybenefits
A newIDB-ILO reportshowsthat decarbonization inLatin America and the Caribbeancan create 15 million net jobs by 2030 in sectors such as sustainable agriculture, construction and renewable energy.Decarbonizationcanalsobring new investments, decongest traffic in cities,promote electric mobility, increase competitiveness, air qualityand the quality of life of people. This is even more relevantas countriesconfrontthe pandemic and look for optionsto recover.
Some Latin American countries are at the forefront of the climate agenda. For example, Costa Rica has alreadypublishedits LTS, and countries like Colombia, Chile and Peru are actively working to develop their strategies. The IDB, throughNDC INVESTand the Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America and the Caribbean (DDPLAC) project, is supporting these four leading countries in the design of theirownLTSs.
Peru moves towards carbon-neutrality
Peru is one of themost impacted countries inLatinAmericabyCOVID-19 and a recovery process of considerable proportions is expected, which it calls “climate-smart economic revival”.
The country sees the climate agenda as an opportunity to promote a sustainable and inclusive economic revival and improve the quality of life forPeruvians, and it ismaking important advanceswiththe implementation of theParis Agreement.
Peru isupdatingitsNDC, finalizingaNational Adaptation Plan, andit is alsoupdating the National Strategy on Climate Change by 2050 (the Strategy), which incorporates a vision of carbon neutrality and long-term adaptation. This willbepresentedasit'sLTS at COP26 in GlasgowinNovember 2021.
To continue this progress, NDC INVEST, with support of the IDB's French Climate Fund, and the 2050 Pathways Platform, are supporting the Government of Peru to report the update of the Strategy through an innovative Robust Decision Making (RDM) technique, which models technological routes to decarbonization under the following principles:
- Co-construction and alignment with multiple development objectives:decarbonization options are discussed with relevant actors in Peruvian society, not only in terms of their potential to achievenet-zero emissions by 2050, but also in terms of their potential benefits and alignment with other development objectives, costs, and uncertainties to consider. In this way, the modeling incorporates decarbonization options that maximize the quality of life for Peruvians and lead to manageable costs for citizens, the private sectorand the government. In April this year, the first workshops were held with actors from the most important sectors in terms of greenhouse gas emissionssuch asenergy, transport, forests, agriculture, industries and waste.
- Ambition and local context:the process of co-construction with the actors who best know the functioning of the Peruvian economy and society allows working on the design of an LTS that will be in accordance with the realityon the groundand that will build on existing processes on theclimate and developmentagenda.
- Robustness:RDM incorporates uncertainty variables by simulating hundreds of scenarios, making them robust in the face of uncertainty. Also, it allows identifying the most important vulnerabilities and possible action measures to counter them.
- Generation of local capacities:The project seeks to install analytical capacity in Peru and institutionalize the science-decision-making relationship. In the country, a team of researchers from the Universidad delPacífico, whoareleading the process, is being trained by the University of Costa Rica to combine their existing analytical capabilities with the use of the RDM method. UCR professionals successfully used this tool to estimate the costs and benefits of the Costa RicanDecarbonization Plan.
A second round of workshops organized by the Ministry of the Environment will be held in August to share the preliminary results of the projectwithsectors and refine them based on their feedback. In this way, Peruis advancingtowards the definition of a robust LTS andconfirmsits commitment to climate ambition and supportfora sustainable and inclusive economicrecovery.
Further reading:
Jobs in a Net-Zero Emissions Future in Latin America and the Caribbean
Getting to Net-Zero Emissions: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean
NDC INVEST Bulletin: ACL in Numbers: Vol. 2, July 2020
Electric buses offer Latin American and Caribbean transport a green and profitable future
Photo: Flickr – vcheregati
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