RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

The IDB has researchers in many departments producing working papers on economic and social topics. Many of these documents constitute background research for the IDB’s flagship publication "Development in the Americas" prepared by the Research Department. In addition, the IDB finances and mentors studies conducted by other institutions in order to build knowledge and research capacity. All IDB working papers are peer reviewed and meet high editorial standards.

2021 LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN MACROECONOMIC REPORT: Opportunities for Stronger and Sustainable Postpandemic Growth

Coordinated by Eduardo Cavallo and Andrew Powell

  • Latin America and the Caribbean was hard hit by COVID-19. The 7.4% loss of GDP was the largest on record in a single year, 26 million jobs were lost and (extreme and moderate) poverty is expected to rise by about 5 percentage points of the population. Growth in 2021 could be as low as 0.8% if vaccine roll-out is delayed or mutations prove to be vaccine resistant. But in a positive scenario of higher world growth, the region could grow as much as 5.2%. In a central scenario growth would be around 4.1%.

  • The average fiscal package to address the crisis was 8.5% of GDP and deficits increased by an average of 5.3% of GDP in 2020. Public debt increased from 58% of GDP in 2019 to 72% in 2020 and could continue to rise to 76% by 2023. However, the trajectory is highly dependent on growth and fiscal policy.

  • Governments should take action to ensure fiscal, monetary, and financial sustainability. They should also implement a set of urgent reforms to improve fiscal outcomes and boost growth by assisting viable firms, helping workers find formal jobs in the face of reallocation, improving connectivity, implementing a plan towards faster digitalization, and investing in sustainable infrastructure. These measures will help boost productivity, spur growth, and achieve ambitious climate goals.

Download

DIA 2020: From Structures to Services

Edited by Eduardo Cavallo, Andrew Powell and Tomás Serebrisky

  • To close its infrastructure gap, Latin America and the Caribbean needs more than investment in hard assets. It needs simultaneous and decisive policy action to improve efficiency of the infrastructure investment process and regulation of services—what we refer to as software.

  • Our study provides an in-depth diagnostic of access, quality, and affordability of infrastructure services in the region as well as examples of regulatory policies that have achieved tangible progress in service provision.

  • Digitalization will disrupt the provision of infrastructure services and increase efficiencies. Our study develops scenarios of market organization for the energy, transport and water and sanitation sectors based on the extent of adoption of digital technologies.

  • For the promise to become a reality a supportive regulatory framework is needed to improve infrastructure in sustainable ways through adaptation, mitigation and the use of natural infrastructure. Our book explores the public policies needed to achieve this.

Download

LATEST BLOG POSTS

What Drives Rural Migration in Latin American and the Caribbean?
What Drives Rural Migration in Latin American and the Caribbean?

The story of migration in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 20th and early 21st century is one of a mass exodus from rural areas to cities. Less than half of the population in the region lived in the cities in 1960. By 2016 that had soared above  80%. The motivations behind this mass […]

The post What Drives Rural Migration in Latin American and the Caribbean? appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Trust: A Critical Component of the Fight Against Air Pollution
Trust: A Critical Component of the Fight Against Air Pollution

While the COVID-19 pandemic has killed almost five million, more people die every year because of air pollution, which accounts for about one in five deaths worldwide. The problem, moreover, is especially acute in low- and middle-income countries, where exposure to high levels of air pollution affects 90 percent of the population. Given the substantial […]

The post Trust: A Critical Component of the Fight Against Air Pollution appeared first on Ideas Matter.

“The Wire” as a Mirror of Intergenerational Inequality
“The Wire” as a Mirror of Intergenerational Inequality

Bunny Colvin, the policeman who invents Hamsterdam to alleviate the effects of drug trafficking in the imaginary Baltimore of the “The Wire,” appears in the fourth season of the series as a mediator who is trying to save some of the corner boys in the schools. Colvin ends up disappointed at how little education can […]

The post “The Wire” as a Mirror of Intergenerational Inequality appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Latest Publications

Latest Events