International Tourism Demand Model (ITDM)

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This platform develops a methodology to anticipate international tourism demand by distinguishing the outbound market. The starting point is the construction of a baseline scenario that predicts the demand that would have occurred in 2020 and 2021 had the epidemic not existed. This baseline demand is affected by the situation with Covid-19 considering three effects:

  1. The date of market reactivation according to the epidemic for each pair of origin-destination (based on an epidemiological SIR model);
  2. The reduction in income at origin and how it reduces the intention to travel (based on a panel data model);
  3. The reduction in confidence to travel (using post-pandemic travel surveys).

These three effects reduce the expected pre-Covid19 demand and allow realistic adjustments according to the value of post-Covid expected demand.