Revelations of Expectations in Latin America
The February 2019 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average of growth expectations in 2019 remained constant at 2.9% and the simple average of inflation expectations also remained constant at 4.0% with respect to January’s surveys. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2019 in February compared to the previous month decreased in Brazil, Chile and Mexico, and remained constant in Colombia, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. Inflation expectations for 2019 decreased in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, increased in Guatemala and remained constant in Paraguay and Uruguay. In February, growth expectations for 2019 ranged from 1.3% in Uruguay to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations for 2019 ranged from 2.4% in Peru to 7.5% in Uruguay. Growth expectations for 2020 remained constant in February compared to January for the simple average calculation at 3.2% and decreased by 0.1% for the GDP-weighted average calculation from 2.7% to 2.6%. inflation expectations for 2020 remained constant in February compared to January for the simple average calculation at 4.0% and decreased by 0.1% for the GDP-weighted average calculation from 3.8% to 3.7%.
Expectations for the year