Revelations of Expectations in Latin America

The October 2018 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average of growth expectations in 2018 decreased by 0.1% from 2.9% to 2.8% while the simple average of inflation expectations remained constant at 4.3% with respect to September’s surveys. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2018 in October compared to the previous month decreased in Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, remained constant in Chile, Guatemala and Mexico and increased in Colombia. Inflation expectations for 2018 increased in Brazil and Colombia, decreased in Uruguay and remained constant in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru and increased in Brazil and Colombia. In October, growth expectations for 2018 ranged from 1.3% in Brazil to 4.3% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations for 2018 ranged from 2.3% in Peru to 8.2% in Uruguay. In October, growth expectations for 2019 decreased by 0.1% for the simple average from 3.1% to 3.0 compared to September. Inflation expectations for 2019 increased in October compared to September for the simple average calculation from 4.1% to 4.2%.

Expectations for the year

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REVELA is a free Web-based monthly service on inflation and growth expectations in Latin America. REVELA's Web site offers an up-to-date report and a database with historical information. This service compiles data from the expectations surveys of eight Latin American Central Banks that have inflation-targeting regimes. REVELA does not represent official projections by the IDB or any other official institution.



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