RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Research Department - homepage banner_v04_ENG_1.png

Res authors Detail

RESEARCH ECONOMIST
VICTORIA NUGUER
VICTORIA NUGUER

Victoria Nuguer is a Research Economist in the Inter-American Development Bank’s Research Department. She holds a Ph.D. from École Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne in Switzerland and a bachelor’s degree from the Universidad de Buenos Aires in Argentina. Prior to joining the Bank in May 2017, she spent nearly three years as a Research Economist in the Bank of Mexico. Victoria’s main research agenda focuses on building dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to explain key financial transmission mechanisms in closed and open economies. For closed economies, she has focused on the propagation of financial shocks from the housing sector to the rest of the economy. Regarding open economies, Victoria has studied the international transmission of financial shocks from advanced to emerging economies through the bank lending channel. Recently, she has been working on understanding the strategic interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies and on the role of trade credit when firms set prices in emerging economies.

LATEST OPINION PIECES

The Delicate Balance of Protecting Income While Fighting Inflation

With food inflation for a median country in Latin America and the Caribbean running at 14% in 2022, its highest level in 20 years and even core inflation — excluding energy and food — running at 7%, central banks in the region have been compelled to keep interest rates aloft. This has contributed to an […]

The post The Delicate Balance of Protecting Income While Fighting Inflation appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Preparing the Macroeconomic Terrain for Renewed Growth

Since 2020, the economies of the world have been hit by a series of severe shocks, most dramatically the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result, after growing around 3.9% last year, Latin America and the Caribbean region now faces considerably lower growth projections for 2023, with private forecasters predicting growth […]

The post Preparing the Macroeconomic Terrain for Renewed Growth appeared first on Ideas Matter.

The Universal Factors Behind Inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean

With inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean running at its hottest in two decades, the issue of where that inflation comes from and what the region’s central banks might do differently has taken on great urgency. Our newly released study arrives at a hugely important conclusion: the overwhelming bulk of inflation in the region […]

The post The Universal Factors Behind Inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today

Inflation in Latin America is currently running at its highest level in 15 years. With uncertainty about how it will unfold, the expectations of people and firms are largely de-anchored, meaning distinct from the central banks’ target levels, and thus a potential source of even greater inflation. Meanwhile, as world interest rates rise, countries in […]

The post Lessons from the Lost Decade for Confronting Inflation Today appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Is There a Future for Digital Currencies Issued by Central Banks in Latin America and the Caribbean?

Boosting financial inclusion has long been essential in Latin America and the Caribbean, where more than 200 million people lack access to financial services and large numbers of citizens are unable to open a bank account because of poverty, geography, discrimination, and lack of proper identification. Alternative systems, however, could be transformative. They could be […]

The post Is There a Future for Digital Currencies Issued by Central Banks in Latin America and the Caribbean? appeared first on Ideas Matter.

From Pandemic to Inflation and War: Challenges for Policymakers in Latin America and the Caribbean

After a robust economic recovery last year from the lows of the pandemic, Latin America and the Caribbean faces strong headwinds from potential new coronavirus variants, inflation-fighting efforts in advanced economies, and the war between Russia and Ukraine that could depress world growth and even push the region into recession by 2023.   Riding a […]

The post From Pandemic to Inflation and War: Challenges for Policymakers in Latin America and the Caribbean appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Inflation and Its Impact on the Poor in the Era of COVID-19

Inflation has become a growing concern for central banks in Latin America and the Caribbean. The recovery in economic activity was stronger than expected in the first months of 2021, reflecting the stimulus that governments deployed to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and higher mobility and lower containment measures. However, inflation and inflation expectations […]

The post Inflation and Its Impact on the Poor in the Era of COVID-19 appeared first on Ideas Matter.

How New Predictive Models and Timely Data Lead to Better Public Policy Decisions

In recent years, advances in the standardization and statistical treatment of standard variables have allowed greater precision in the reporting of short- and long-term economic activity, including, among others, GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. But the application of the complex, technical methodologies required in arriving at those calculations has also delayed the data’s publication, […]

The post How New Predictive Models and Timely Data Lead to Better Public Policy Decisions appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Amidst the Pandemic, A Battle for Inclusion

The year 2019 was the year anger over social issues took to the streets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Poverty and inequality in the region had fallen following the commodity boom of the 2000s, but more recent years of low growth brought that progress to a standstill. Mass frustration erupted. Amidst high youth unemployment […]

The post Amidst the Pandemic, A Battle for Inclusion appeared first on Ideas Matter.

What Can Central Banks Do to Mitigate the Effects of the Coronavirus?

The unprecedented conditions created by the spread of the coronavirus call for exceptional policy responses from the regional monetary authorities. Besides traditional tools such as interest rate reductions, central banks have been pursuing unconventional measures to avoid permanent consequences from a transitory, but potentially severe, negative shock. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks […]

The post What Can Central Banks Do to Mitigate the Effects of the Coronavirus? appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Policies and Projections for Latin America and the Caribbean in the Time of Covid-19

The novel coronavirus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, have imposed severe human and economic costs around the world. Cases are growing in Latin America and the Caribbean and if there is one lesson from other countries it is that early action to stop the spread of the virus is key. A recent analysis suggests […]

The post Policies and Projections for Latin America and the Caribbean in the Time of Covid-19 appeared first on Ideas Matter.

When Lower Barriers to Firm Creation Translate Into More Resilient Economies

By Alan Finkelstein Shapiro and Victoria Nuguer Registering a business in Latin America is not for the faint of heart. Multiple procedures  — ranging from establishing by-laws and a legal structure to registering the company with authorities — have to be carried out. Labyrinthine bureaucracies have to be negotiated. Lawyers and accountants are often hired to avoid […]

The post When Lower Barriers to Firm Creation Translate Into More Resilient Economies appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Fighting Inflation With Better Communication

As the chair of the United States Federal Reserve from 2006-2014, Ben Bernanke liked to say that monetary policy is 98% talk and only two percent action. In other words, what the central bank says is hugely important. It can affect households, firms, and market expectations, and, in turn, impact the economy. That message could not […]

The post Fighting Inflation With Better Communication appeared first on Ideas Matter.

When Focusing on the Interest Rate is Not Enough

Before the financial crisis of 2008, most governments lacked an institutional framework for handling financial policy. Central banks focused on monetary policy. They mostly used interest rates to influence inflation and output, believing such a focus could guarantee economic stability. But when it came to financial policy they were inclined to trust the invisible hand […]

The post When Focusing on the Interest Rate is Not Enough appeared first on Ideas Matter.

How the Financing of Firms Affects Prices

Firms in the developed world rely heavily on bank credit. But firms in developing countries, and particularly those in Latin America, rely much more heavily on trade credit–i.e. credit from their suppliers –and that has immense implications for pricing decisions and inflation. Most studies that have looked at inflation in emerging economies have examined the […]

The post How the Financing of Firms Affects Prices appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Reducing Volatility from Cross-Border Banking Flows

How can emerging markets protect themselves from abrupt shifts in cross-border banking flows? That has been a fundamental question for economic policymakers in recent years, including those entrusted with banking supervision in regions like Latin America and the Caribbean. In a study made available online in May, Gabriel Cuadra and I examine the issue, focusing […]

The post Reducing Volatility from Cross-Border Banking Flows appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Dealing with Corporate Debt and Rising Interest Rates

They have risen bit by bit. But since the financial crisis in 2008, the Fed has kept interest rates in the United States exceedingly low. Now with healthier economic growth and employment in the United States, that may be changing, and Latin American countries need to be on their guard. Latin America’s major economies have […]

The post Dealing with Corporate Debt and Rising Interest Rates appeared first on Ideas Matter.

Publications