Climate change poses a serious threat to all Caribbean nations despite their low contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Due to their size and location, Caribbean SIDS are particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. As developing economies relying on sectors vulnerable to climate patterns such as tourism, agriculture and fishing, Caribbean nations would be greatly affected by the ongoing rise in sea levels, changes in rain patterns and temperatures, and increasing intensity of natural disasters identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Despite the many differences among Caribbean nations, climate change poses a serious threat to them all. According to the IPCC, average temperatures in the region have increased by 0.1° to 0.2°C per decade over the past three decades. Rainfall patterns have shifted in the region, with the number of consecutive dry days expected to increase. Additionally, sea level rise has occurred at a rate of about two to four cm per decade over the past 33 years, a trend which presents risks to the region’s freshwater resources and to its largely coastal population dependent on tourism and agriculture.

In terms of addressing the threat of climate change to the Caribbean, the cost of inaction is high. Projections indicate that losses could total US$22 billion annually by 2050. That figure represents roughly 10% of the current Caribbean economy. In addition, climate change resources could help the region reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and exposure to their price variability, with gains for climate change mitigation.

According to United Nations, SIDS are defined as islands and low-lying coastal countries sharing similar challenges to sustainable development.

OVE’s evaluation of the selected case studies presents three particular approaches of IDB support to climate change in very dissimilar contexts

In order to better understand the impact of climate change on the region, OVE carried out in-depth evaluations in three countries: Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Barbados.

Barbados. With sandy beaches, fringing reefs, and a rich coastal ecosystem that attracts more than 1.1 million visitors per year, tourism is central to the economy of Barbados. Tourism accounts indirectly for 39% of the country’s GDP and employs 38% of the labor force. In addition, more than 50% of Barbadians live on or near the coast, and 95% of tourism-related plants and other critical infrastructures are also concentrated in these areas. As a result, climate change and sea-level rise would greatly impair Barbados’ economic development. The IDB and the country have worked together for more than 30 years on coastal zone management. IDB support has been strategically and financially relevant, by strengthening institutional capacities to analyze and plan for the impacts of sea-level rise, coastal erosion and saline intrusion, and by promoting important engineering works including offshore breakwaters, groins, beach nourishment and walkways. For instance, IDB has supported the Holetown beach improvement project and the Rockley to Coconut Court waterfront improvement project, which created 4.5 km of continuous safe beach access and increased beach volume by 16,000 m³. Although the long-term sustainability of such investments have been questioned, given high maintenance costs, the medium-term environmental and economic benefits are significant.

Dominican Republic. The Dominican Republic (DR), the third-largest Caribbean country in terms of population and the second-largest in terms of area, is highly exposed to major risks from extreme natural phenomena. According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, DR experienced on average 1.6 natural disasters per year between 1980 and 2010, which affected more than 87,700 people and generated economic losses totaling US$84.1 million annually. Climate change, including increased intensity of hurricanes and of storm surges, would only worsen this situation. Since the mid-2000’s, IDB has taken a more comprehensive stance on Disaster Risk Management by assessing the risk, the need for prevention efforts, and the response to natural disasters in the nation. Furthermore, the Bank designed a toolkit that includes reserve funds, fast-disbursing contingency credit lines and sovereign insurance facilities to enhance financial protection and preparedness. Notwithstanding, implementation has been hindered by a lack of appropriation at the highest political level that could jeopardize the achievement of relevant results in case of severe extreme weather events.

Haiti. Haiti is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to a combination of factors ranging from its geographic location, deforestation and land degradation to high poverty rates, weak institutional capacity, and unstable governments. In this context, the IDB has been supporting adaptation-related measures in Haiti´s agriculture sector for decades. In more recent operations, the objectives have shifted from infrastructure in specific rural areas to more integrated agriculture programs combining disaster risk and watershed management. Assessing the effectiveness of the portfolio is constrained, however, by slow project execution—further aggravated by the 2010 earthquake—and therefore limited results have been gauged. Nonetheless, the Bank has recently made efforts to improve execution by using policy-based grants strengthening the agricultural institutional framework while promoting sustainable land use.