Economic and Social Effects of El Niño in Ecuador
Por Rob Vos, Margarita Velasco, Edgar de Labastida (12/99, POV-107, En) Vea también Pobreza y Desigualdad
Natural disasters like the ?El Niño? phenomenon often hit hardest on the poor. Yet, it is often difficult to separate the effects on living conditions resulting from inclement weather from general inadequacies in infrastructure and lack of economic development. Furthermore, controversies may arise as to the methodology for valuing damages due to natural disasters, that is, do you account for repair and rehabilitation alone or for reconstruction to prevent future damages and enhance development? This methodological problem related to the measurement of the costs also affects policy choices. How much should one focus on emergency relief and what can be done to obtain better prevention against recurring weather shocks such as El Niño? Ecuador?s policy orientation appears to have been reactive, relying on relatively untargeted emergency relief. This study, however, recommends greater emphasis on pro-active and targeted development investment.
This study finds that the economic and social costs of El Niño in Ecuador have been substantial. Most economic costs relate to losses of agricultural production and damages to infrastructure. Increased health risks are also critical. Close to 300 deaths directly linked to the floods are to be lamented, and about a quarter of the Ecuadorian population has been exposed to increased risk of diseases and mortality.
Outcomes suggest that most of the agricultural income losses are borne by small farmers in the production of rice, corn, coffee and cocoa, and to a lesser extent by agricultural workers in the sugar cane industry and banana plantations. The overall impact on the already high poverty incidence in the affected areas could be as large as 10 percentage points. For some, El Niño was not a disaster but a boon. Wealthy shrimp producers, in particilar, saw productivity go up by over 25%, while banana exporters can compensate production losses through higher export quotas and export prices. Health risks are greatest in areas with poor sanitary infrastructure and poor overall social conditions. The affected areas this time around largely coincide with those affected in previous occurrences of El Niño.
This study proposes methodologies to identify different types of risks associated with natural disasters such as El Niño and to establish degrees of vulnerability to such risks by geographical areas and population groups. This should help to set policy priorities toward preventive investment and better protection of the most vulnerable population.
Ultima actualización: 08/05/07
