Spatial Econometric Analysis and Project Evaluation: Modeling Land Use Change in the Darién
Por Gerald C. Nelson, Virginia Harris, Steven W. Stone (11/99, En) Vea también Medio Ambiente
Under the mandate of its 8th Capital Replenishment, one of the Inter-American Development Bank's fundamental objectives is to foster sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean by integrating social, economic, and environmental objectives in its operations. An innovative example of this commitment is the Program for the Sustainable Development of Darien Province in Panama, a $70 million operation approved in 1998. The program's goals are to promote social equity, economic growth and environmental protection in a province that has the highest incidence of poverty in the country, diverse indigenous cultures, and a rich and irreplaceable ecosystem represented by the Darien National Park, an area of such valuable biodiversity that UNESCO has declared it both a World Heritage Site and a Man and the Biosphere Reserve.
A major component of the program involves the resurfacing of the Pan American highway, which runs roughly north south through the province to a point about 70 kilometers from the Colombian border. Given the unique cultural and environmental endowments in the region, any potentially negative environmental effects of the road resurfacing had to be anticipated and mitigated, if necessary, in conformity with the Bank's environmental impact review process. Consequently, the Environment and Natural Resources Management Division of the Bank's Regional Operations Department 2, in collaboration with the Sustainable Development Department's Environment Division, commissioned a series of baseline and impact analyses, of which this analysis was a part.
The paper illustrates the use of spatial analysis techniques to predict the land use changes that would occur after the road is resurfaced and other project interventions completed. The predictions are based on a spatial econometric model relating categories of land use to geophysical and socioeconomic variables, including transportation costs and distance from markets. The results of this model are used to predict the spatially explicit effects of road resurfacing on economic activities. The methods explored in this paper offer a promising way to combine behavioral models of human activity with geographic information to realistically assess the prospective land use changes induced by development projects. We hope the paper will encourage project developers to consider similar exercises when the environmental impacts of land use alterations are of critical concern.
Ultima actualización: 08/05/07
