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Pre-NAFTA
Brown, Drusilla K. 1992. “The Impact of a North American Free Trade Area: Applied General Equilibrium Models.” In N. Lustig, B.P. Bosworth, and R.Z. Lawrence, North American Free Trade: Assessing the Impact (26-68). Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Summary: A review of the CGE studies used to predict the effects of NAFTA. Focuses on the general impact of NAFTA on growth, trade, exchange rates, and average wages. The paper provides general descriptions and comparisons of various models, pointing out the differences in assumptions and structure.
Region: Mexico
Conroy, M.E. and A.K. Glasmeier. 1992/1993. “Unprecedented Disparities, Unparalleled Adjustment Needs: Winners and Losers on the NAFTA “Fast Track”.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs. 34(4): 1-37.
Summary: A historical analogy study of the potential impacts of NAFTA on Mexico’s economy. Compares Mexico’s situation prior to NAFTA with that of Spain and Portugal prior to joining the European Community and also draws on the findings of CGE studies that deal with NAFTA. Identifies “winners” and “losers” under NAFTA. Mexican “winners” include multinational businesses, labor-intensive manufacturing, and sugar, fruit and vegetable producers. Mexican “losers” include basic grain producers, urban unskilled wages. Offers suggestions on how to mitigate losses and help losers transition, such as to include longer transition periods and adjustment packages.
Region: Mexico
Cornelius, W.A. and P.L. Martin. 1993. “The Uncertain Connection: Free Trade and Mexico Migration.” International Migration Review. 27(3): 484-512.
Summary: This paper evaluates the potential impact of NAFTA on Mexican migration with in the country and to the United States. Four arguments are offered as to why the actual impact may not match the projected outcome of increased migration to the U.S. The basis for the arguments lies in income diversification among Mexicans, the potential for greater U.S. FDI into Mexico to create jobs, and the disconnect between domestic migration and international migration, all factors that discourage migration to the United States. Europe’s experience with integration is used as an example for the argument that following NAFTA’s implementation, Mexico-U.S. migration should actually decline in the long run.
Region: Mexico
Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul A. and Sherman Robinson. 1992. “Labor Issues in a North American Free Trade Area.” In N. Lustig, B.P. Bosworth, and R.Z. Lawrence, North American Free Trade: Assessing the Impact (69-108). Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Summary: Reviews the CGE and other models used to predict the effects of NAFTA on labor markets. Provides one table that summarizes the main assumptions and compares the structure of each model, and an additional table summarizing the results of each.
Region: Mexico
Josling, Tim. 1992. “NAFTA and Agriculture: A Review of the Economic Impacts.” In N. Lustig, B.P. Bosworth, and R.Z. Lawrence, North American Free Trade: Assessing the Impact (144-175). Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Summary: Reviews the many studies (CGE, partial equilibrium, etc.) that were used to predict the effects of NAFTA on agriculture. The CGE studies vary in their level of disaggregation by agricultural sector and the partial equilibrium studies focus on more specific sectors of agriculture.
Region: Mexico
Leamer, Edward E. 1992. “Wage Effects of a U.S.-Mexican Free Trade Agreement.” National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). February. Paper presented at the Conference on the Mexico-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, Brown University, Providence, October 17-19, 1991.
Summary: This paper examines the effects on employment, output and wages of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Mexico. The central question, approached using several theoretical models (such as a wage equalization model and a two-factor Hecksher-Ohlin model), is to determine if a U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement would have a significant effect on the historical trend in which U.S. imports of labor intensive goods have grown rapidly over time. The paper finds that the effect of a Mexico-U.S. FTA on the U.S. would be sufficient to impact U.S. production due to likely productivity increases among Mexico’s producers stemming from trade liberalization. The overall conclusion is that an FTA would place downward pressure on wages in the U.S., particularly if one of the benefits of the FTA is access to lower-waged unskilled labor.
Region: Mexico
Lustig, Nora. 1991. “Bordering on Partnership: The U.S.- Mexico Free Trade Agreement.” Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics.
Summary: A broad, preliminary discussion of the potential effects of NAFTA. It is an early version of a later paper: Lustig, Nora. 1993. “NAFTA: Potential Impact on Mexico’s Economy and Beyond.” IDB-ECLAC Working Paper on Trade in the Western Hemisphere (WP-TWH-41).
Region: Mexico
Lustig, Nora. 1993. “NAFTA: Potential Impact on Mexico’s Economy and Beyond,” Inter-American Development Bank – ECLAC Working Paper on Trade in the Western Hemisphere (WP-TWH-41).
Summary: A brief review of the predicted effects of NAFTA. Links the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and other models’ results to real world applications and how the prediction studies were used to make policies concerning the agreement. Discusses the broader impacts of the agreement on the rest of Latin America and the potential political impacts it could have.
Region: Mexico.
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