|
| (S) indicates the document is in Spanish. |
|
Post-NAFTA
Appendini, Kirsten. 1994. “Agriculture and Farmers within NAFTA: A Mexican Perspective.” In V. Bulmer-Thomas, N. Craske, and M. Serrano (eds.), Mexico and the North American Free Trade Agreement: Who Will Benefit? (59-75). New York: St. Martins Press.
Summary: A review of the issues surrounding agriculture in Mexico with respect
to NAFTA. Identifies winners and losers in both the U.S. and Mexico. Mexican winners are fruit and vegetable
growers and the agro-industry. Staple producers and peasant/subsistence farmers are not expected to benefit.
Discusses PROCAMPO as an income support program to compensate staple producers, but argues that the program
should not be expected to push transitions to the production of other crops.
Region: Mexico
Bolling, Christine, Steve Neff and Charles Handy. 1998. “U.S. Foreign Direct Investment in the Western Hemisphere Processed Food Industry.” ERS-AER-760. Food and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. March.
Summary: A review of U.S. FDI in food processing, examining the processed food market and industry in four country case: Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Mexico. The report also lists the U.S. affiliates in Mexico’s food processing industry and highlights some of the main products/sectors.
Region: Mexico
De Janvry, Alain, Elisabeth Sadoulet and Gustavo Gordillo de Anda. 1995. “NAFTA and Mexico’s Maize Producers.” World Development. 23(8): 1349-62.
Summary: An empirical study of the ejido sector using household survey data. Finds that a significant number of maize producers in the ejido sector do not produce for the market and therefore can be expected to not be significantly negatively affected by falling maize prices. Suggests that technical assistance in transitioning away from maize will be required for net maize sellers and that significant consumer benefits will be gained by falling maize prices.
Region: Mexico
De Janvry, A., E. Sadoulet, and B. Davis. 1995. “NAFTA’s Impact on Mexico: Rural Household-Level Effects.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 77(5): 1283–91.
Summary: An empirical study that finds the welfare effects of falling maize prices to differ across rural households. Net sellers are negatively affected by falling prices, while net buyers gain considerably. Self-sufficient maize producers lose slightly due to falling wages. Authors highlight the need for modeling effects of NAFTA to include the household-level effects, because the differences in effects among households is lost when perfect markets are assumed.
Region: Mexico
De Ferranti, David et al., 2003. “Lessons From NAFTA For Latin America and the Caribbean Countries: A Summary of Research Findings.” Press Briefing Transcript. 17 December. Accessed April 7, 2004.
Summary: A summary of the World Bank report, Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America and the Caribbean (2004).
Region: Mexico
Esquivel, Gerardo, Daniel Lederman, Miguel Messmacher, and Renata Villoro. 2002. “Why NAFTA Did Not Reach the South.” The World Bank, Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Summary: The paper discusses the economic performance of the Southern states of Mexico, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero, in comparison to the rest of Mexico and to past trends. The slow growth observed in the southern states is attributed to labor productivity, lack of transportation and communication infrastructure, as well as political and social problems.
Region: Mexico
Hall, Gillette and Christopher Humphrey. 2003. “Estrategia de Desarrollo de los Estados de Sur de México: Volumen 1: Resumen del informe.” El Banco Mundial. Dirección Subregional para Colombia y México. (S)
Summary: This paper identifies the characteristics that limit the growth and development of the southern status, Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca. It is claimed that agricultural productivity is very low in this area, yet it is one of the largest employers, along with the public sector. A development strategy should focus on expanding the private sector, improving agricultural production, particularly for non-traditional crops, and developing non-agricultural activities such as tourism, wood and non-wood forest resources, historic and cultural activities and artisan works. Also identifies infrastructure and access to external markets as a limiting factor. Other limiting characteristics in the area are the climate of conflict, lack of services and limited specialization.
Region: Mexico
Hanson, Gordon H. 2003. “What Has Happened to Wages in Mexico Since NAFTA? Implications for Hemispheric Free Trade.” National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Working Paper 9563.
Summary: An empirical study that examines how NAFTA has affected the wage structure in Mexico, using data from the 1990 and 2000 Mexican population census as well as results from other empirical studies. Finds that the premia for higher education has increased since 1990, that regional wage inequality increased and that the largest wage gains were in areas with better access to FDI and/or strong migration options.
Region: Mexico
Lederman, Daniel, William F. Maloney and Luis Serven. 2004. Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America and the Caribbean: A Summary of Research Findings. Advance Edition. The World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Studies. April.
Summary: This report evaluates the experience of Mexico with NAFTA and draws lessons from that experience, recognizing out that the analysis of NAFTA and the identification of lessons for Latin America are limited by the 1995 Tequila Crisis. The report points out that FTAs can be different from NAFTA in part because the initial conditions in various Latin American countries will differ. The report finds that NAFTA positively affected trade, investment, technology transfers and growth. The expected negative effects of NAFTA on Mexico’s agricultural sector never materialized, due in part to support programs such as PROCAMPO, which helped increase productivity, efficiency and mitigate problems, providing incentives for the transformation of the current agricultural structure. PROCAMPO was successful since it was delinked from present and future production decisions, which kept it from distorting production decisions as other price supports did in the past. Another program administered by FIRA will take PROCAMPO to the next step by helping finance cost-sharing investment projects of the PROCAMPO farmers. The report states that the benefits of an FTA include the guarantee of market access for a firm, which is more secure that unilateral preferences from trading partners, and that it can provide credibility for investors. Among the costs are a loss of government revenue from tariffs and that unilateral reforms cannot be forgone. The report suggests the changes in export market share achieved by Mexico were the result of the reforms the country made prior to NAFTA, which points out that trade-friendly policies complement FTAs and can improve the outcome of the FTA bargaining process. The report suggests that Mexico’s pre-NAFTA reforms were the reason that it was the first Latin American country to negotiate a FTA with U.S.
Region: Mexico
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander. 2002. “The Impact of NAFTA on Foreign Direct Investment Flows in Mexico and the Excluded Counties.” Background paper for D. Lederman, et al. 2004. Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America and the Caribbean. The World Bank.
Summary: This paper compares FDI flows to Mexico with that of flows to other countries not part of the NAFTA agreement. The author discusses reasons for the differences in flows, comparative advantages and differences in preferences granted in NAFTA and the Caribbean Basin Initiative. Argues that human capital and infrastructure are two of the main factors that attract FDI and suggests that countries should improve those factors in order for higher FDI flows to result from free trade agreements such as NAFTA.
Region: Mexico
Nicita, Alessandro. 2004. “Who Benefited from Trade Liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the Effects on Household Welfare.” The World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper 3265. April.
Summary: A study that uses household survey data to measure the impact of trade liberalization on household welfare by examining changes in prices and wages, from 1989 to 2000. The study incorporates differences between households, geographic locations and differences in market integration. Estimations of tariff pass-through elasticities are used to estimate the change in prices due to trade liberalization. The results show that trade liberalization increased inequality between rural and urban households as well as between skilled and unskilled workers. The pass-through elasticities differ by region and by product: prices of manufactures are more affected than agricultural goods by the tariff reductions. When imports are only a small portion of domestic consumption, the prices of agricultural goods are less affected by changes in tariffs. Overall, poverty has been reduced by 3% as a result of trade liberalization; however, households that were net suppliers of agricultural goods saw their incomes fall.
Region: Mexico
Papademetriou, Demetrios, John Audley, Sandra Polaski and Scott Vaughan. 2003. "NAFTA’s Promise and Reality: Lesson from Mexico for the Hemisphere." Carnegie Endowment Report. November.
Summary: This report discusses NAFTA’s impact on the quality of life in Mexico and offers insights from Mexico’s experience for other Latin American countries in negotiating trade agreements with the U.S. The authors find NAFTA has not been able to meet its expectations on jobs, income and poverty reduction.
Region: Mexico
Polaski, Sandra. 2003. “Chapter 1: Jobs, Wages and Household Income.” In D. Papademetriou, J. Audley, S. Polaski and S. Vaughan, NAFTA’s Promise and Reality: Lessons from Mexico for the Hemisphere (11-37). Carnegie Endowment Report. November.
Summary: Reviews the changes in employment and wages that have occurred since NAFTA in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Claims that NAFTA was unable to create enough manufacturing jobs to offset the loss of agricultural jobs. Also points out that not all manufacturing jobs can be attributed to NAFTA, but that other factors, such as the peso crisis, helped to create such employment. The paper links the increasing trade deficit to lost agricultural jobs, but notes that Mexico was also signing other trade agreements during the time. Argues that rural households have survived the negative impacts of the trade agreement because they have diversified their activities, continued to prefer locally produced crops, which maintains production, and because local markets are less integrated with world markets.
Region: Mexico
Sadoulet, Elisabeth, Alain de Janvry and Benjamin Davis. 2001. “Cash Transfer Programs with Income Multipliers: PROCAMPO in Mexico.” World Development. 29(6): 1043-1056.
Summary: Econometric study to examine the effects of PROCAMPO in the ejido sector. Uses panel data from 1994 and 1997 of ejido households. Finds that the PROCAMPO payments have income multipliers of between 1.5 and 2.6 and that the payments were mainly used to invest in the production of, and/or to increase demand for staple crops. Suggests that the multiplier effects could have been increased if they were accompanied by transition assistance programs.
Region: Mexico
Taylor, J. Edward, Antonio Yúnez-Naude and George Dyer. 1999. “Agricultural Price Policy, Employment, and Migration in a Diversified Rural Economy: A Village-Town CGE Analysis from Mexico.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 81: 653-662.
Summary: Using Taylor’s micro economy-wide model, the authors try to predict the impact of various agricultural policy reforms. The model is calibrated with household survey data from 1993 and experiments are conducted using different closures and policy changes. Compares the removal of price supports to staple crops with a situation where the price supports are replaced with PROCAMPO income payments. The income transfers are found to have an income effect, changing household demand. Without the income transfers, staple production is reduced due to the lower prices after the removal of price supports.
Region: Mexico
Trivoli, George W. and Robert Glenn Graham. 1998. “Strategic Factors for Trading and Investing in Latin America by U.S. Businesses During the Post-NAFTA Era.” Atlantic Economic Journal. 26(2): 129-36.
Summary: This paper reports findings of a mail survey of 1000 U.S. firms in various industries, only two of which were related to agriculture (farm equipment and forest products). Only 96 responses were received, of which 66 were usable. The results indicate that most businesses’ main concern for investments in Latin America were currency depreciation, high rates of inflation and inconvertibility of currency. Therefore, while micro incentives are important to attract investment, it is also important that macro stability be maintained as well.
Region: Mexico
Vaughan, Scott, 2003. “Chapter 3: The Greenest Trade Agreement Ever? Measuring the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Liberalization.” In D. Papademetriou, J. Audley, S. Polaski and S. Vaughan, NAFTA’s Promise and Reality: Lessons from Mexico for the Hemisphere (61-87). Carnegie Endowment Report. November.
Summary: This chapter suggests that Latin American countries should keep in mind the importance of small, environmentally-friendly productive activities to help mitigate the negative impacts of trade liberalization, but that each country’s resources and needs are different, so no one strategy will work for all countries.
Region: Mexico
White, Marceline, Carlos Salas and Sarah Gammage. 2003. “NAFTA and the FTAA: A Gender Analysis of Employment and Poverty Impacts In Agriculture.” Women’s Edge Coalition. November.
Summary: This non-econometric study uses the Trade Impact Review (TIR) developed by the Women’s Edge Coalition to forecast the potential impact of an FTAA on Mexico’s agricultural sector. Reviews the changes to agriculture that have been associated with NAFTA and claims that NAFTA is the cause of 1.3 million lost jobs in agriculture. Argues that impacts should be evaluated separately for men and women because women hold different jobs than men. Paper does not separate NAFTA’s effects from other possible causes of the changes, nor does it account for the variety of economic activities in which households participate to earn income. Shows that the impact on men and women have differed, in the number and type of jobs created since NAFTA. Uses production and employment data to support arguments.
Region: Mexico
Wodon, Quentin, Gladys López-Acevedo and Corinne Siaens. “Pobreza en los estados del sur de México.” El Banco Mundial, Dirección Subregional para Colombia y México. (S)
Summary: A review of poverty in the southern Mexican states. Regression is done to identify which characteristics of the southern states and of the households in the southern states that make them poorer than the rest of Mexico. The majority of the difference in income is found to be due to the characteristics of employment there. It is also found that individuals receive smaller premiums for working in non-agricultural sectors than individuals in other parts of Mexico and the penalty for working in agriculture in the south is higher. A main obstacle to increasing economic growth is the lack of infrastructure in the southern states, which limits access physically and increases the cost of doing business in the area. It is argued that the area should develop non-agricultural economic activities such as tourism and artisan works, as well as more productive agricultural crops and technologies. All of these need investment capital as well as improved infrastructure and connections to world markets.
Region: Mexico
Woodall, Patrick, Lori Wallach, Jessica Roach, and Darshana Patel. 2001. “Down on the Farm: NAFTA’s Seven-Years War on Farmers and Ranchers in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.” Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch.
Summary: A descriptive study from the United States. perspective that claims NAFTA led to a loss of farm income in all three countries. The negative effects of NAFTA can be attributed to competition with cheap imports that forced many farmers out of business. In Mexico, corn farmers have been forced out of production, reducing food security in rural areas. The negative impact in Mexico produced heavy rural to urban migration. In the U.S., producers of poultry, beef, grains, vegetables, fruits, juices and diary products have suffered from competition with imports. Further, small farmers have suffered losses while large agri-businesses have profited. This is a problem in Mexico as the authors state that agri-businesses are moving to Mexico to obtain cheap labor and avoid health and sanitation regulations. The paper also counters claims that lower priced imports benefit consumers by stating that tortilla prices have actually risen while corn prices have fallen because agri-businesses are taking large profits. Also, while NAFTA allowed for gradually opening sensitive markets such as corn, these options were not taken and Mexican farmers suffered greatly as corn imports flooded in.
Region: Mexico
Yúnez-Naude, Antonio. 2002. “Lessons from NAFTA: The Case of Mexico’s Agricultural Sector.” Background paper for D. Lederman, et al. 2004. Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America and the Caribbean. The World Bank. April.
Summary: A non-econometric study that focuses on policy changes, agricultural trade, domestic production in “major traded non-animal unprocessed agricultural commodities,” and trade with the U.S. The author points out the correct and incorrect predictions about NAFTA’s effects and conducts a price decomposition analysis to evaluate the effects of policy changes on importables and exportables. The price decomposition assumes the “law of one price”: in which the percent change in the domestic real price is decomposed into the percent change in real exchange rate, the percent change in the real international price and a residual that is the result of policy interventions. The author finds that real domestic prices for importables and exportables have decreased over time, that agricultural trade since NAFTA has increase, that crop mixes have not change and that policies to help farmers cope have worked. Suggests lessons from NAFTA for Latin America such as that losers could be grain producers and winners could be vegetable and fruit producers; a small scale farming transformation requires access to credit and technology or alternative income sources (non-agricultural activities); public fiscal reforms are required to fund transition assistance programs; and that the participation of farmers in negotiations is required.
Region: Mexico
Yúnez-Naude, Antonio. 2003. “The Dismantling of CONASUPO, a Mexican State Trader in Agriculture.” The World Economy. 26(1): 97-122.
Summary: Provides a description and summary of the CONASUPO program and the changes that were made to it as Mexico unilaterally liberalized trade. The paper focuses on seven main crops; barley, beans, corn, rice, sorghum, soybeans and wheat. The gradual elimination of CONASUPO between 1989 and 2000 is explained, along with the implications for total producer supports.
Region: Mexico
Yúnez-Naude, Antonio and Fernando Barceinas. 2004. “El TLCAN y La Agricultura Mexicana.” In E.R. Casares and Horacio Sobarzo (eds.), Diez Anos del TLCAN en México: Una Perspectiva Analítica. El Trimestre Económico, México.(S)
Summary: This chapter reviews the political and trade reforms that occurred in México during the past twenty years, along with the changes imposed by NAFTA. The authors review the changes that were expected to occur due to agricultural liberalization, examine the effect of NAFTA on the structure of agricultural production and discuss the role of government support and the trends in total agricultural production. The analysis does not find that NAFTA had an effect on the structure of agricultural trade in México.
Region: Mexico
Zahniser, Steven and John Link, eds. 2002. “Effects of North American Free Trade Agreement on Agriculture and the Rural Economy.” United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agriculture and Trade Reports, WRS-02-1.
Summary: This report reviews the effects of NAFTA on U.S. agriculture and includes a look at the increase in U.S. FDI in the food processing industry. Investment in food processing has increased dramatically since NAFTA, while the growth of U.S. exports of processed foods to Mexico have slowed or stagnated, indicating the two are substitutes. Only 5% of current FDI in food processing is in fruits and vegetables. States that NAFTA has increased investor confidence and made Mexico a more attractive investment location.
Region: Mexico
|
