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Below are the research and publications of the IDB on the effects
of CAFTA and NAFTA on the rural economy. If you know of a document that is not listed, please
contact us.
| (S) indicates the document is in Spanish. |
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Arias, Diego, 2007. “Agricultural Support Policies and Programs in Central America and the Dominican Republic in Light of Trade Liberalization .” Economic and Sector Study Series, February. Inter American Development Bank. Regional Operations Department II.
Arias, Diego; Arias, Ricardo; and Gurria, Martin; 2006. "Inversión Extranjera Directa en el Sector Agropecuario de Centroamérica: El Caso de Honduras." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. September. (S)
Data on Agricultural Supports according to the OECD Methodology for Central America. Data collected by Rigoberto Stewart (2004) for Costa Rica, Norberto Quesada (2005) for Dominican Republic, and Arthur D. Little (2006) for Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and Panama.
Acevedo, Carlos. 2003. “La Experiencia de Crecimiento Económico en El Salvador Durante el Siglo XX.” Economic and Sector Studies, Inter-American Development Bank, Region II. (S)
Summary: The paper presents a growth decomposition analysis that describes economic growth in the twentieth century with a focus on El Salvador’s two stages of government/fiscal reforms, the first being 1989-1995 and the second stage being the period since 1995. The first stage included the elimination of price controls, reduction of tariffs and other barriers to external trade, the liberalization of the exchange rate and interest rates, and the privatization of the banking system. The second stage focused on continued deregulation, the privatization of electricity and telecommunications, pension reform and additional financial system reforms. During the first half of the 1990s, El Salvador saw the second highest growth rate in LA, partially due to increased demand for consumer durables and an increase in remittances from abroad; however, the growth slowed in 1995. The author states the only possibility of growth recovery is through the free trade agreement with the U.S. and the economic recovery of North America.
Region: El Salvador.
Hathaway, Dale, 2003. “The Impacts of US Agricultural and Trade Policy on Trade Liberalization and Integration via a US-Central American Free Trade Agreement.” Special Initiative on Trade and Integration, Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean, IDB, Integration and Regional Programs Department. Working Paper – SITI – 04.
Summary: Examines the effects that the U.S. Farm Bill will have on
negotiations and non-tariff barriers to trade with Central America. Points out that after CAFTA
has been signed, marginalized will need help adjusting and finding alternative sources
of income, especially in rural areas with high unemployment already. Further, specific programs
to compensate those during adjustment and to help with the adjustment process will be necessary.
Suggests the CAFTA countries should develop an integrated agricultural market, such as in the EU,
through the use of integrated agricultural policies and, particularly, through the attainment of
exchange rate stability since exchange rate fluctuations can wreak havoc in agricultural trade.
Region: Costa Rica; El Salvador; Guatemala; Honduras; Mexico; Nicaragua.
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). 2000. “Unlocking the Economic Potential of Rural El Salvador.” Regional Operations Department II. Working Document. May.
Summary: The paper reviews the structure of El Salvador’s rural economy and offers four main themes for revitalizing rural economic growth. These themes are: (1) a foundation for improved competitiveness, (2) factor mobility, (3) human and natural resources, and (4) local institutions. The report includes discussion of agriculture and non-agricultural rural activities. Highlights the need for the development of both non-traditional agricultural production and non-agricultural activities such as communications, manufacturing and tourism for strong rural growth.
Region: El Salvador
Jank, Marcos Sawaya, Ian Fuchsloch and Geraldine Kutas. 2003. “Agricultural Liberalization in Multilateral and Regional Trade Negotiations.” Special Initiative on Trade and Integration, Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean, IDB, Integration and Regional Programs Department. Working Paper – SITI – 03.
Summary: This paper describes and analyzes different aspects of agricultural trade liberalization, looking at the political issues of liberalization; the current structure of trade and tariff protections in the Western Hemisphere and the European Union; domestic and export agricultural subsidies in the United States and E.U.; and the group of sensitive agricultural products upon which Western Hemisphere countries rely. In the policy recommendations offered, the authors note that for Central America to obtain the highest returns from agricultural trade liberalization, the North American countries must lower their tariff barriers on agricultural goods simultaneous to a reduction in industrial tariffs by South American countries.
Region: Central America, North America, South America, E.U.
Larrain, Felipe. 2004. “Guatemala: Los Desafíos del Crecimiento.” Economic and Sector Studies, Inter-American Development Bank, Region II. (S)
Summary: The paper presents a growth decomposition that finds the decline in openness (external trade as a percent of GDP) explains part of the recent decline in Guatemala’s growth rate. The decline in openness is attributed to a decline in competitiveness in trade with the United States, owing to the appreciation of the quetzal from inflows of dollar remittances. However, it is noted that most of Guatemala’s trade takes place with other Latin American countries. The findings also point out Guatemala’s export diversity and that trade liberalization has reduced the prevalence of primary product exports. The conclusions suggest the country continue its trade reforms and that export processing zones be maintained to sustain inward investment flows.
Region: Guatemala
Lustig, Nora. 1993. “NAFTA: Potential Impact on Mexico’s Economy and Beyond,” Inter-American Development Bank – ECLAC Working Paper on Trade in the Western Hemisphere (WP-TWH-41).
Summary: A brief review of the predicted effects of NAFTA. Links the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and other models’ results to real world applications and how the prediction studies were used to make policies concerning the agreement. Discusses the broader impacts of the agreement on the rest of Latin America and the potential political impacts it could have.
Region: Mexico.
Monteagudo, Josefina and Masakazu Watanuki. 2003. “Impact of Agricultural Reform in the Western Hemisphere and the European Union on Latin America: Bright Prospects or Distant Illusions?” Inter-American Development Bank. Presented at the Sixth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, The Hague, The Netherlands. June.
Summary: This paper uses an applied CGE model to look at the effects of completely eliminating tariffs, domestic support and export subsidies in the agricultural sector in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), holding all else constant. The model used to simulate the complete elimination of each factor individually and all three together using 1997 as a benchmark. The results show that (1) light manufactures (including agricultural processed products) are leading sectors for all LAC countries; (2) removing tariffs in the Western hemisphere increases LAC agricultural exports by 11 percent; (3) eliminating domestic supports results in a small positive effect on LAC exports; and (3) removing export subsidies alone has no effect.
Region: Central America, North America, South America, E.U.
Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, Manrique Saenz and Alberto Trejos. 2003. “Análisis del Crecimiento Económico en Costa Rica.” Economic and Sector Studies, Inter-American Development Bank, Region II. (S)
Summary: A growth decomposition study of the factors contributing to growth in Costa Rica. The analysis focuses on growth per worker and GDP growth in different sectors. An econometric analysis of GDP growth is performed using the VAR model.
Region: Costa Rica.
J.Edward Taylor, Antonio Yúnez Naude and Nancy Jesurun Clements. 2006. " Los Posibles Efectos de la Liberación Comercial en los Hogares Rurales Centroamericanos a partir de un Modelo Desagregado para la Economía Rural." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. February.(S)
Summary: A partir de un modelo macroeconómico del comportamiento de los hogares, la metodología utilizada toma en cuenta la heterogeneidad de los hogares rurales de Nicaragua, las vinculaciones económicas entre ellos y sus relaciones con los mercados. El modelo es de equilibrio general, y captura los efectos directos e indirectos de cambios de política en los hogares rurales.
Region: El Salvador; Guatemala; Honduras; Nicaragua.
J. Edward Taylor - Antonio Yúnez Naude - Nancy Jesurun-Clements - Eduardo Baumeister - Edgar Lara - Enrique Merlos - Réne Rivera - Jose Angel Tolentino, 2006. "Los Posibles Efectos de la Liberalización Comercial en los Hogares Rurales Centroamericanos a Partir de un Modelo Desagregado para la Economía Rural: Caso de El Salvador." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. August. (S)
J. Edward Taylor - Antonio Yúnez Naude - Nancy Jesurun-Clements - Eduardo Baumeister - Arie Sanders - Julio Bran, 2006. "Los Posibles Efectos de la Liberación Comercial en los Hogares Rurales Centroamericanos a Partir de un Modelo Desagregado para la Economía Rural: Caso de Honduras." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. April. (S)
J.Edward Taylor - Antonio Yúnez Naude - Nancy Jesurun Clements, 2006. "Los Posibles Efectos de la Liberación Comercial en los Hogares Rurales Centroamericanos a Partir de un Modelo Desagregado para la Economía Rural. Caso Nicaragua." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. February. (S)
J.Edward Taylor - Antonio Yúnez Naude - Nancy Jesurun Clements, 2006. " Los Posibles Efectos de la Liberación Comercial en los Hogares Rurales Centroamericanos a Partir de un Modelo Desagregado para la Economía Rural. Caso Guatemala." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. February. (S)
Todd, Jessica, Paul Winters and Diego Arias. 2004. "CAFTA and the Rural Economies of Central America: A Conceptual Framework for Policy and Program Recommendations." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. December.
Summary: This paper presents a conceptual framework for the development
of policies and programs that maximize the net benefits from CAFTA and which generate positive distributional
effects. The literature predicting the effects of NAFTA on Mexico and evaluating the impact of NAFTA on Mexico
is reviewed and lessons learned from NAFTA are extracted. Through a review of the literature predicting the
effects of CAFTA on the rural economies of Central America, a conceptual framework for policy and program
recommendations is presented.
Region: Costa Rica; El Salvador; Guatemala; Honduras; Mexico; Nicaragua.
Tovar, Carlos, 2006. "Medidas Sanitarias y Fitosanitarias y Obstáculos Técnicos al Comercio. Informe sobre Honduras y Nicaragua." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. September. (S)
Tovar, Carlos, 2006. "Medidas de Defensa Comercial." Economic and Sector Study. Inter-American Development Bank. September. (S)
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