A revolution sparked by numbers

The latest United States census catapults the Hispanic population into the headlines–and into the political big leagues

By Charo Quesada

When the official results of the year 2000 United States census were finally released earlier this year, one news story dominated all others. According to the census, the U.S. Hispanic community took a gigantic leap in a single decade, growing by an astonishing 60 percent to 35.3 million individuals. This figure put Hispanics on a par with African Americans–historically the largest minority group in the United States–thereby crossing a symbolic threshold with profound political consequences.

The strong Hispanic presence in the United States was not exactly a state secret. A large percentage of U.S. Hispanics have been in the country for a generation or two, if not more. But now they have the weight of the census behind them. The statistics are expected to have a dramatic impact by translating numbers into greater political power, different cultural dynamics, improved services, and–above all–more attention.

Although many people assume it is the fate of Latinos in the United States to become maids, waiters, gardeners or unskilled laborers, the numbers paint a different picture. According to a recent study done by the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute in California, the Hispanic middle class in the United States has grown by 80 percent over the past 20 years. The Hispanic community now includes congressmen, mayors, private executives, high-spending consumers, and–most significantly–registered voters. Elected officials, politicians, and the business community are suddenly scrambling to win over Hispanic hearts and purchasing power.

Data, not speculation. Not until the country saw the numbers on paper did the Latin star begin to shine in the U.S. constellation. A headcount of 35.3 million Latinos (three million more than expected) means a ton of votes for a Congress almost exactly split down the middle. It means a lot of people who express themselves mainly in Spanish, who serve salsa instead of ketchup, prefer tortillas, spicy rhythms and bright colors, and need all the social services and opportunities that can be offered to them.

States with large, long-standing Hispanic populations, such as California, Florida and Texas, or cities like New York and Los Angeles, have seen record-breaking increases in Latinos. In California, non-Hispanic whites have become a minority, and the population of Latin American descent is the majority in Los Angeles and Sun Valley, two of the most prosperous and densely populated areas in the state. Texas is following the same pattern. In Florida, the Hispanic vote grew by 70 percent, outnumbering that of African Americans for the first time.

But states without a large Hispanic population have witnessed an even greater increase. In Oklahoma, Oregon and North Carolina, the Latino population doubled during the 1990s. In Arizona, it grew by 80 percent. In Annapolis, the capital of Maryland, the Latino population increased fivefold.

These figures have had an immediate impact. In the middle of his election campaign in Oregon, Republican candidate for governor Gordon H. Smith, armed with these fresh statistics, did an about-face and switched tactics. Instead of attacking immigrants, as many members of his party have done, he began courting the Latino vote by promising social service programs, green cards for undocumented immigrants, and better health and education services.

Latinos can also expect to see their growth rate remain higher than that of the rest of the population, since they are a mostly young population. With a median age of 25.9, compared to the 35.3 year-old national median, they are a decade younger than the rest of the country. In addition, they have a higher fertility rate than the United States average.

Ripple effects. With 80 percent of U.S. federal funding tied to it, the census has now become the main source of information for government, business and electoral redistricting. Schools, highways, health clinics, social services, the mail, access to freeways, and countless other programs and services are parceled out according to the map the census draws every 10 years.

Innumerable businesses, shopping centers, mailing lists, media broadcasts, and all manner of consumer products are designed and marketed after experts have scrutinized the number, characteristics and location of potential customers. As a result, large U.S. corporations now invest millions of dollars to advertise in Spanish; they cannot afford to miss the mark.

Political parties also want to predict the future by staring into the census crystal ball. Population shifts and redistricting directly affect the makeup of Congress in Washington and state legislatures. Each new trend on the map could mean a victory for the rival party; every fistful of votes is decisive when Republicans and Democrats are wrangling over practically every inch of the political map.

Multiculturalism redefined. Correcting the errors and inaccuracies of past censuses was one of the reasons for the so-called "Hispanic surprise" in 2000. The U.S. federal government made great efforts to include as many citizens as possible in the census, paying special attention to minorities that were left out in the past. Information campaigns were conducted and questionnaires were provided in different languages. For the first time, the palette of colors in the national mosaic was expanded to allow combinations of various groups. Americans could thus describe themselves as any of 63 different racial categories, including "white-Asian," "white-American Indian," and "white-Inuit." In some cases, people identified themselves as a combination of five or six different racial groups.

Despite these new options, in the United States all Spanish-speakers tend to be lumped into the same ethnic category of "Hispanic," without distinguishing Mexicans from Cubans or Guatemalans from Colombians. According to the latest statistics, 58.5 percent of Hispanics in the United States are of Mexican descent, 9.6 percent of Puerto Rican descent, and 4.8 percent of Central American descent. The rest of Latin America and the Caribbean are represented in smaller proportions. Nevertheless, for the first time, the 2000 Census gave Hispanics the opportunity to define themselves in terms of their physical features and skin color.

I © Latinos. There is nothing that warms the hearts of pragmatic Americans more than numbers, statistics and surveys. And the figures reported in the census have momentarily done away with the image of Latino immigrants as poor, uneducated, and rowdy.

Time will tell what the real impact of the census will have on the future of the U.S. Latino community. But even U. S. President George W. Bush is already providing some hints. He constantly flirts with Spanish in his public speeches, has appointed several Hispanic officials to key positions in his cabinet, and is cultivating a deliberately close relationship with his Mexican counterpart, Vicente Fox. Bush’s advisors have warned him that the Hispanic vote will be decisive in the next elections: having earned support from 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000, Bush will need to win over 40 percent of it in 2004 if he wants to be reelected.

The Latino community can expect that if the president himself is now unabashedly pursuing them, many other presidential candidates will follow suit in the future.