REVELA

Revelations of Expectations in Latin America

The August 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has remained stable at 1.7% compared to the July. Similarly, the GDP weighted-average growth rate expected for 2016 remained stable at -0.4% in August. At the same time, inflation expectations decreased by 0.2% from 5.4% to 5.2% on a simple average basis but increased by 0.1% from 5.6% to 5.7% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations increased by 0.1% in Brazil from -3.3% to -3.2% and fell by 0.1% both in Chile (from 1.7% to 1.6%) and Mexico (from 2.3% to 2.2%). They remained constant in Peru at 3.8%, Guatemala at 3.4%, Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.8% and Uruguay at 0.0%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.8% in Peru. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3% from 6.5% to 6.8%, in Guatemala by 0.2% from 4.3% to 4.5% and in Brazil by 0.1% from 7.2% to 7.3%. They decreased in Uruguay by 0.9% from 10.3% to 9.4%, in Paraguay by 0.5% from 4.8% to 4.3%, in Peru by 0.3% from 3.3% to 3.0% and in Mexico by 0.1% from 3.2% to 3.1%. Finally, they remained stable in Chile at 3.5%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3.0% in Peru to 9.4% in Uruguay. Download the full report and data.

 

Brazil:

Chile:

Colombia:

Guatemala:

Mexico:

Paraguay:

Peru:

Uruguay:

     

GDP Avg:

Simple Avg:

     

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Analysis chart HTML

 

Expectations for 2016
(G)rowth & (I)nflation
July vs. August 

 

G

I

LAC Average

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Guatemala

Mexico

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

 

What is revela ?

REVELA is a free Web-based monthly service on inflation and growth expectations in Latin America. REVELA's Web site offers an up-to-date report and a database with historical information. This service compiles data from the expectations surveys of eight Latin American Central Banks that have inflation-targeting regimes. REVELA does not represent official projections by the IDB or any other official institution.

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Excel Dataset