World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles - An Empirical Investigation

Fernandez, Andres; Uribe, Martín; Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie

Working Papers - English - Jun, 2017

SVAR models that include a single world price (such as the terms-of-trade) predict that world shocks explain a small fraction of movements in domestic output (typically less than 10 percent). This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple comm...

Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability

Pagliacci, Carolina; Guarata, Nora

Working Papers - English - May, 2017

This paper examines how financial fluctuations and macroeconomic stability interact in the case of Venezuela, acknowledging that financial conditions deteriorating the macroeconomic environment can arise with both good and bad macroeconomic performance. An ...

Credit Supply in Venezuela:A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?

Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María; Pagliacci, Carolina

Working Papers - English - Apr, 2017

This paper evaluates whether fiscal and foreign exchange policy shocks can explain both credit and credit supply in Venezuela. Empirical evidence suggests that between 65 and 90 percent of credit growth is linked to the buildup of banks’ deposits caused by th...

Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay:An MS-VAR Approach

Bucacos, Elizabeth

Working Papers - English - Apr, 2017

This study analyzes the effects of “financial stress” on the Uruguayan macroeconomy in the 1998Q3-2016Q2 period with the underlying idea that financial shocks propagate differently during “normal times” than during times of “stress.” This behavior is capture...

Inequality, Crime, and the Long-Run Legacy of Slavery

Vargas, Juan F.; Buonanno, Paolo

Working Papers - English - Apr, 2017

Estimating the effect of inequality on crime is challenging due to reverse causality and omitted variable bias. This paper addresses these concerns by exploiting the fact that, as suggested by recent scholarly research, the legacy of slavery is largely mani...

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