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Research Topics

Macroeconomics


2016 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report: Time to Act: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Strong Challenges
Powell, Andrew
Annual Report - English - Apr, 2016

The commodities boom that once buoyed the region’s economies is over, and countries have less fiscal space to undertake counter-cyclical policies than they did during the global financial crisis. This year’s Latin American and Caribbean Macro Report surveys the challenges facing the region in a new economic era and offers guidance on how policymakers can reduce long-term risks in a period of lower growth.

Related JEL Codes:
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F3 - International Finance
Q02 - Commodity Markets


Gone with the Wind: Demographic Transitions and Domestic Saving
Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Sánchez, Gabriel; Valenzuela, Patricio
Working Papers - English - Apr, 2016

This study explores the relationship between demographic factors and saving rates using a panel dataset covering 110 countries between 1963 and 2012. In line with predictions from theory, this paper finds that lower dependency rates and greater longevity increase domestic saving rates. However, these effects are statistically robust only in Asia. In particular, Latin America, which is a region that has undergone a remarkably similar demographic transition, did not experience the same boost in saving rates as Asia. The paper highlights that the potential dividends arising from a favorable demographic transition are not automatically accrued. This is a sobering message at a time when the demographic tide is shifting in the world.

Related JEL Codes:
E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
J10 - Demographic Economics: General
O16 - Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 60

Newsletter / Journal - English - Apr, 2016

The February 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectation for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA decreased by 0.1% from 2.0% to 1.9% compared to January. Furthermore, the GDP weighted average growth expectation decreased by 0.3% from -0.1% to -0.4%. On the contrary, the simple average inflation expectation for 2016 increased by 0.2% from 5.0% to 5.2, and the GDP weighted average inflation expectation increased by 0.3% from 5.4% to 5.7% compared to the previous month. At the individual country level, growth expectations evolved heterogeneously, rising in Paraguay (by 0.2%), Guatemala and Peru (by 0.1% in both cases); falling in Brazil (by 0.4%), Chile (by 0.2%), Mexico (by 0.2%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%); and remaining stable in Colombia (at 3.0%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 increased in Colombia (by 0.7%), Brazil (by 0.5%), Mexico and Paraguay (by 0.2% in both cases) and Chile (by 0.1%). They decreased in Uruguay (by 0.2%) and remained stable in Guatemala (at 3.9%) and Peru (at 3.5%). Expected growth ranges from -3.4% in Brazil to +3.8% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.3% in Mexico to 9.7% in Uruguay.


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 59

Newsletter / Journal - English - Mar, 2016

The January 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the expected growth for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA on a simple average basis was 2.0%, decreasing by 0.2% compared to December 2016. The GDP weighted average growth expectation was -0.1%, which fell by 0.1% compared to the previous month’s figure. On the other hand, inflation expectations for 2016 were 5.0% on a simple average basis (0.2% above previous month) and 5.4% on a GDP weighted average basis (0.1% above previous month). At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2016 decreased by 0.7% in Paraguay from 3.8% to 3.1%, by 0.3% in Brazil from -2.7% to -3.0%, by 0.2% in Colombia from 3.2% to 3.0%, and by 0.1% in three countries: Guatemala (from 3.8% to 3.7%), Chile (from 2.2% to 2.1%) and Uruguay (from 1.3% to 1.2%). Growth expectations remained constant in Peru at 3.2% and in Mexico at 2.7%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 increased by 0.7% in Guatemala from 3.2% to 3.9%, 0.5% in Uruguay from 9.4% to 9.9%, 0.2% in Brazil from 6.9% to 7.1%, 0.2% in Colombia from 4.6% to 4.8%, 0.1% in Paraguay from 4.4% to 4.5%, 0.1% in Chile and Peru from 3.4% to 3.5% in both countries. Inflation expectations decreased by 0.2% in Mexico – from 3.3% to 3.1%. Growth expectations for 2016 range from -3.0% in Brazil to 3.7% in Guatemala, while inflation expectations for 2016 range from 3.1% in Mexico to 9.9% in Uruguay.


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 58
Powell, Andrew; Sosa, Mariano
Newsletter / Journal - English - Feb, 2016

The November 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have remained constant at 2.0% compared to October. Also, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have remained constant during November at the level of -0.3%. Similarly, 2015 inflation expectations have remained stable at 5.4% on the simple average basis according to November surveys, and have increased by 0.3% from 6.7% to 7.0% on the GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 fell in Brazil and Paraguay by 0.2% in both cases, remained constant in Colombia at 3.1%, Peru at 2.8% and Uruguay at 1.8%, and increased by 0.1% three countries: Chile, Guatemala and Mexico. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2015 increased in Colombia by 0.6%, Brazil by 0.5%, Guatemala by 0.2% and Peru by 0.1%. They remained constant in Uruguay at 9.6% and Chile at 4.6%, and fell in Paraguay by 0.7% and Mexico by 0.3%. With this results, expected growth for 2015 now ranges between –3.2% in Brazil and 3.7% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges between 2.4% in Mexico and 10.3% in Brazil.


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