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Macroeconomics


Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Database (2017 update)

Databases - English - Oct, 2017

Most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have been growing slowly for a long time and see themselves still poor relative to the rest of the world, both advanced countries and peer countries in other regions. Low productivity and insufficient productivity growth, as opposed to impediments to factor accumulation, is the key to understanding LAC’s low income relative to developed economies and its stagnation relative to other developing countries that are catching up. Daude and Fernández-Arias (2010) calculate measures of total factor productivity (TFP) for a cross section of countries and show that TFP is the principal driver of the slow development of LAC. This database provides this measure of TFP updated until 2010 along with the inputs used to calculate it and other measures of productivity.

Related JEL Codes:
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O47 - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: 2017 Update
Fernández-Arias, Eduardo
Technical Notes - English - Oct, 2017

This report combines development and growth accounting exercises with economic theory to estimate the relative importance of total factor productivity and the accumulation of factors of production in the economic development performance of Latin America. The region’s development performance is assessed by contrast with various alternative benchmarks, both advanced countries and peer countries in other regions. The paper finds that total factor productivity is the predominant factor: low productivity and insufficient productivity growth, as opposed to impediments to factor accumulation, are the key to understanding Latin America’s low income relative to developed economies and its stagnation relative to other developing countries. While policies easing factor accumulation would help somewhat in improving productivity, for the most part, closing the productivity gap requires productivity-specific policies.

Related JEL Codes:
O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O47 - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


IDEA Newsletter Oct. 2017

Newsletter / Journal - English - Oct, 2017

IDEA is the newsletter of the IDB’s Research Department (RES). Every month, it provides information about our upcoming events, latest publications and blog posts, calls for papers, job opportunities, data resources, and more.


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 72
Powell, Andrew; Sosa, Mariano
Newsletter / Journal - English - Sep, 2017

The April 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA declined compared to the previous month by 0.1% from 2.4% to 2.3%, while the GDP-weighted average remained stable at 1.3%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for 2017 remained stable both under the simple average basis (at 4.6%) and under the GDP-weighted average basis (at 4.5%) in April compared to March. At the individual country level, growth expectations rose only in Mexico by 0.2% from 1.5% to 1.7% and declined in three countries: by 0.8% in Peru from 3.3% to 2.5%, by 0.2% in Colombia from 2.6% to 2.4%, and by 0.2% in Chile from 1.8% to 1.6%. Inflation expectations declined by 0.1% in four countries: Uruguay from 7.9% to 7.8%, Colombia from 4.5% to 4.4%, Brazil from 4.1% to 4.0% and Chile from 3.0% to 2.9%. Contrarily, they rose by 0.1% in Mexico from 5.6% to 5.7% and in Peru from 3.1% to 3.2% compared to the previous month According to surveys in April, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 2.9% in Chile to 7.8% in Uruguay.


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 73
Powell, Andrew; Sosa, Mariano
Newsletter / Journal - English - Sep, 2017

The May 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA rose compared to the previous month by 0.1% from 2.3% to 2.4%. Also, the GDP-weighted average increased by 0.1% from 1.3% to 1.4%. On the other hand, inflation expectations fell by 0.1% from 4.6% to 4.5% according to the simple average of the surveys, and they remained stable at 4.5% under the GDP-weighted average in May. At the individual country level, growth expectations rose in three countries, remained stable in five and fell in none. They increased by 0.3% both in Uruguay from 2.3% to 2.6% and in Mexico from 1.7% to 2.0% compared to April. They also rose by 0.1% in Peru from 2.5% to 2.6%. Inflation expectations declined in four countries, rose only in one and remained constant in three. The most significant fall was observed in Uruguay by 0.6% from 7.8% to 7.2%, followed by 0.1% declines in: Brazil from 4.0% to 3.9%, Guatemala from 4.5% to 4.4% and Peru from 3.2% to 3.1%. Mexico is the only country where inflation expectations for 2017 increased, by 0.2% from 5.7% to 5.9%. With these results, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 2.9% in Chile to 7.2% in Uruguay.


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