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Macroeconomics


Promised and Affordable Replacement Rates in LAC Pension Systems in 2015 and 2100: Methodology and Determinants
Oliveri, María Laura; Bosch Mossi, Mariano; Berstein, Solange
Technical Notes - English - Apr, 2016

This note, originally prepared as an appendix for the 2016 Development in the Americas Report, Saving for Development, surveys the methodology and assumptions used in the discussion of replacement rates for pension systems in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Related JEL Codes:
E23 - Production
H55 - Social Security and Public Pensions


Firm Productivity as an Engine of Saving
Fernandez, Andres; Tamayo, Cesar; Busso, Matías
Technical Notes - English - Apr, 2016

This technical note considers whether low savings in Latin America and the Caribbean may result from low productivity rather than vice versa. Economies with low TFP growth tend to be economies in which returns to investments are low, with low saving rates as well. In that sense, low TFP growth, by providing weaker incentives to save, could be another determinant of the low saving rates observed in the region. Moreover, firms need to invest, which in turn requires that they can access financial markets. If instead, firms are constrained because of financial frictions, some entrepreneurs may have to run small firms and save in order to fund their projects, slowing down aggregate productivity growth. This note further examines the distribution of private savings in the economy and the behavior of firm saving to explore whether financial frictions distort price signals and incentives to save.

Related JEL Codes:
E13 - Neoclassical
E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E22 - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E23 - Production


2016 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report: Time to Act: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Strong Challenges
Powell, Andrew
Annual Report - English - Apr, 2016

The commodities boom that once buoyed the region’s economies is over, and countries have less fiscal space to undertake counter-cyclical policies than they did during the global financial crisis. This year’s Latin American and Caribbean Macro Report surveys the challenges facing the region in a new economic era and offers guidance on how policymakers can reduce long-term risks in a period of lower growth.

Related JEL Codes:
E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F3 - International Finance
Q02 - Commodity Markets


Gone with the Wind: Demographic Transitions and Domestic Saving
Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Sánchez, Gabriel; Valenzuela, Patricio
Working Papers - English - Apr, 2016

This study explores the relationship between demographic factors and saving rates using a panel dataset covering 110 countries between 1963 and 2012. In line with predictions from theory, this paper finds that lower dependency rates and greater longevity increase domestic saving rates. However, these effects are statistically robust only in Asia. In particular, Latin America, which is a region that has undergone a remarkably similar demographic transition, did not experience the same boost in saving rates as Asia. The paper highlights that the potential dividends arising from a favorable demographic transition are not automatically accrued. This is a sobering message at a time when the demographic tide is shifting in the world.

Related JEL Codes:
E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
J10 - Demographic Economics: General
O16 - Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance


Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 60

Newsletter / Journal - English - Apr, 2016

The February 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectation for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA decreased by 0.1% from 2.0% to 1.9% compared to January. Furthermore, the GDP weighted average growth expectation decreased by 0.3% from -0.1% to -0.4%. On the contrary, the simple average inflation expectation for 2016 increased by 0.2% from 5.0% to 5.2, and the GDP weighted average inflation expectation increased by 0.3% from 5.4% to 5.7% compared to the previous month. At the individual country level, growth expectations evolved heterogeneously, rising in Paraguay (by 0.2%), Guatemala and Peru (by 0.1% in both cases); falling in Brazil (by 0.4%), Chile (by 0.2%), Mexico (by 0.2%) and Uruguay (by 0.1%); and remaining stable in Colombia (at 3.0%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for 2016 increased in Colombia (by 0.7%), Brazil (by 0.5%), Mexico and Paraguay (by 0.2% in both cases) and Chile (by 0.1%). They decreased in Uruguay (by 0.2%) and remained stable in Guatemala (at 3.9%) and Peru (at 3.5%). Expected growth ranges from -3.4% in Brazil to +3.8% in Guatemala, while expected inflation ranges from 3.3% in Mexico to 9.7% in Uruguay.


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