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This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a GVAR model for five large Latin American economies shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased three fold since the mid-1990s, the long-term impact of a US GDP shock has halved, and the transmission of shocks to Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia GDP (excluding China and India) has not changed. These changes owe more to changes in China’s impact on Latin America’s traditional and largest trading partners than to increased direct bilateral trade linkages boosted by the decade-long commodity price boom.
This is the data used for the estimation of the GVAR model as in "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America" (IDB-WP-266). The dataset includes quarterly data for twenty-five major advanced and emerging economies plus the euro area, covering more than 90 percent of world GDP. The variables included in the dataset are real GDP, CPI inflation, real equity prices, re ... (View publication)
Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). This paper documents how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. A commodity sector is then embedded into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coe ... (View publication)
This paper first compares house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price dataset covering the period 1990- 2012. It is found that that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. They also correlate more closely with capital flows than in advanced ... (View publication)
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