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There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes.
This paper studies the influence of external financial factors on economic activity in emerging economies (EMEs) motivated by a considerable increase in foreign financing by the corporate sector in EMEs since the early 2000s, mainly in the form of bond issuance. A quarterly external financial indicator for several EMEs is built using bond-level data on spreads of corporate bonds issued in fore ... (View publication)
This paper argues that, in the presence of nominal wage rigidities, the exis- tence of Rule-of-Thumb agents and price rigidities does not cause a change in the Taylor Principle as suggested by Galí et al. (2004), and that the only rigid- ity relevant for this result is that faced by Rule-of-Thumb consumers. For doing so, a New-Keynesian model with Rule-of-Thumb agents is proposed. The model discri ... (View publication)
This paper presents a recursive, dynamic CGBM to evaluate the impact of climate change on six six Latin American and Caribbean economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Jamaica and Peru). The medium-sized model considers the relative prices mechanism and structural economic changes, as well as the impact of climate change on revenue levels and policies. Policies and conditional regulations ... (View publication)
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