Revelation%20of%20Expectations%20in%20Latin%20America%28REVELA%29%20%2D%20Issue%2071

Newsletter / Journal

Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 71


CODE: IDB-NW-187
AUTHOR(s): Powell, Andrew , Sosa, Mariano
PUBLISHED: September 2017
LANGUAGE: English
RELATED TOPICS: Macroeconomics
DOWNLOAD FILE IN: English

Abstract:

The March 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA rose compared to the previous month by 0.1% from 2.3% to 2.4%, while the GDP-weighted average of growth expectations remained stable at 1.3%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for 2017 fell by 0.1% both on the simple average basis from 4.7% to 4.6% and on the GDP-weighted average basis from 4.6% to 4.5%. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2017 rose significantly compared to the previous month in Uruguay by 0.9% from 1.4% to 2.3%, followed by Paraguay by 0.2% from 3.8% to 4.0%. Growth expectations fell by 0.2% in Peru from 3.5% to 3.3%, and by 0.1% both in Chile from 1.9% to 1.8%, and in Guatemala from 3.3% to 3.2%. Inflation expectations fell by 0.6% in Uruguay from 8.5% to 7.9% and by 0.3% in two countries: Brazil from 4.4% to 4.1% and Paraguay from 4.3% to 4.0%. They also declined in Colombia by 0.1% from 4.6% to 4.5%. Inflation expectations rose by 0.2% in Mexico from 5.4% to 5.6%, and by 0.1% both in Chile from 2.9% to 3.0% and in Peru from 3.0% to 3.1%. According to surveys in March, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 4.0% in Paraguay, while inflation expectations ranged from 3.0% in Chile to 7.9% in Uruguay.

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