Revelation%20of%20Expectations%20in%20Latin%20America%28REVELA%29%20%2D%20Issue%2069

Newsletter / Journal

Revelation of Expectations in Latin America(REVELA) - Issue 69


CODE: IDB-NW-183
AUTHOR(s): Powell, Andrew , Sosa, Mariano
PUBLISHED: June 2017
LANGUAGE: English
RELATED TOPICS: Macroeconomics
DOWNLOAD FILE IN: English

Abstract:

The January 2017 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2017 for the eight countries covered by REVELA fell by 0.1% from 2.4% to 2.3% compared to the previous month, while the GDP-weighted average growth rate remained constant at 1.3%. On the other hand, inflation expectations for the region for 2017 remained constant at 4.7% on a simple average basis but rose by 0.2% on a GDP weighted average basis from 4.5% to 4.7%. At the individual country level, growth expectations increased only in Paraguay by 0.1% compared to the previous month, remained constant in Brazil and Chile and fell in five countries: Colombia by 0.3%, Peru by 0.2%, and in Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay by 0.1% in all three cases. Inflation expectations increased in Mexico by 1.2% and in Colombia by 0.1% compared to the previous month. They remained constant in Chile and Peru and declined in Paraguay and Uruguay by 0.4% in both countries. Further declines were observed in Guatemala by 0.2% and in Brazil by 0.1%. According to surveys in January, growth expectations for the region for 2017 ranged from 0.5% in Brazil to 3.8% in Paraguay and Peru, while inflation expectations for 2017 ranged from 2.9% in Chile to 8.4% in Uruguay.

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