IDB Home > Annual Meeting 2008 > Seminars Español
|
Comment on this page

All that Glitters May Not Be Gold: Assessing Latin America's Recent Macroeconomic Performance

 

Date: Friday, April 4, 2008
Time: 2:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m
Location: C-125
AGENDA | VIDEO
Presentation
| Report

 

 

Seminar description

Latin America has recently been growing remarkably fast, experiencing the longest expansion since the early 1970s. Fundamentals look much healthier. The region exhibits a stronger fiscal position and shows a significant reduction in public debt levels. In contrast to previous expansions, the region displays a healthy current account surplus, coupled with a strong buildup of international reserves. Are these major achievements here to stay? The region has benefited from very favorable external conditions–strong commodity prices and historically low spreads–that could very well account for an important share of the apparently successful current economic performance. Given these conditions, how much should governments be praised for these results? Are current policies and fundamentals strong enough to withstand the typical financial and commodity price roller-coasters in Latin America, or should the region be using the current bonanza to prepare for the next change in winds? Given recent events in the US, has the likelihood of more difficult times increased?

Profiles of Moderator and Panelists

Michael Gavin, Emerging Market Economist, Citadel Investment Group

Before joining Citadel Investment Group, Michael Gavin was managing director at UBS, where he served as head of Latin American research. Prior to joining UBS, Gavin was an economist at the Inter-American Development Bank and played an important role in the research and analysis of financial policies in Latin America. He has also worked at the Federal Reserve Bank and been a visiting researcher and consultant at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In academia, Gavin was an associate professor of economics at Columbia University and founded the master’s track in political economy. He has also taught at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Vienna, Austria, and at the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education in Prague, Czech Republic. In 2002, LatinFinance placed Gavin first in its Research Olympics, and in 2004, Institutional Investor selected Gavin as the third best analyst in Latin American economic research. He holds a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Randall Kroszner, Governor, Federal Reserve Bank

Randall S. Kroszner took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on March 1, 2006. Before becoming a member of the Board, Dr. Kroszner was professor of Economics at the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago from 1999 to 2006. He was also assistant professor (1990-1994) and associate professor (1994-1999) at the university. Formerly director of the George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State and editor of the Journal of Law & Economics, he has been a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a director at the National Association for Business Economics, and a member of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor. From 2001 to 2003 Dr. Kroszner was a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), where he focused on domestic and international issues including banking and financial regulation, corporate governance reform, currency crisis management, sovereign debt restructuring, the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), international trade, and economic development. Dr. Kroszner has been a visiting scholar at the Securities and Exchange Commission, the IMF, the Stockholm School of Economics, the Free University of Berlin, and the London School of Economics. He received his undergraduate degree in applied mathematics and economics from Brown University and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.

Santiago Levy, Vice President for Sectors and Knowledge, IDB

Mexican economist Santiago Levy Algazi became the vice president for Sectors and Knowledge at the IDB on March 1, 2008. From August 2007 to Feburary 2008, he served as general manager and chief economist for the IDB Research Department. Dr. Levy previously served as general director at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) from December 2000 to October 2005. In this position he promoted changes in the Social Security Act to increase transparency and accountability in IMSS finances and create long-term reserves. From 1994 to 2000, Dr. Levy was deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico. In addition to being the main architect of the renowned social program Progresa-Oportunidades, he managed budgetary adjustments during the 1994-95 economic crisis and the 1998 fall in oil prices. His previous positions include president of the Federal Competition Commission and director of the Economic Deregulation Program at the Ministry of Trade and Industrial Promotion. Dr. Levy has advised several governments and international organizations and has taught on the faculties of institutions, including the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México and Boston University, where he was associate professor and director of the Institute for Economic Development.

Guillermo Mondino, Head of Emerging Market Research at Lehman Brothers

Guillermo Mondino is head of Emerging Market Research at Lehman Brothers. Previously head of his own firm, MacroVision Consulting in Buenos Aires, Mr. Mondino led the council of economic advisers in Argentina’s Ministry of the Economy, Secretary of Economic Policy and Secretary of Finance in 2001. Mr. Mondino has held visiting positions at Yale University (2004), the University of Chicago (1996 and 1997), Universidad Torcuato Di Tella University (1995, 1999 and 2000) and the Universidad de San Andrés (1995), and he was an assistant professor of international economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business (1990-94). Mr. Mondino has additionally advised governments in several regions of the world. In Ecuador (1996, 1999, 2000 and 2003), he served as the lead advisor on the dollarization and debt restructuring processes, and he has advised government agencies in Indonesia, Ukraine and Mexico, as well as working frequently with the IMF, World Bank and IDB. The author of a variety of academic and non-academic publications, Mr. Mondino has also been a member of advisory boards of several organizations (Time Warner Latin American Experts, Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, GE-Capital) and the newspaper El Cronista.

Carmen M. Reinhart, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland

Carmen M. Reinhart is professor of Economics at the School of Public Policy and the Department of Economics in the University of Maryland, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the editorial board of the American Economic Review. Having received her Ph.D. from Columbia University, Professor Reinhart has held positions as vice president at the investment bank Bear Stearns and, more recently, as deputy director at the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. She has written on numerous topics in macroeconomics and international finance and trade, including capital flows to developing countries, capital controls, inflation stabilization, balance of payments and banking crises, and contagion. Her work has been published in leading scholarly journals, including the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of Economic Perspectives and featured in publications including The Economist, The Financial Times, The Washington Times, and The Wall Street Journal.

José Juan Ruiz, Chief Economist, Strategy and Analysis America Division, Grupo Santander

José Juan Ruiz is chief economist of Strategy and Analysis America Division, Grupo Santander. A former trader and economist of the Spanish government from 1982 to 1987, he became undersecretary for international economy and competition in 1990. From 1991 to 1993 he served as chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union from 1991 to 1993, and in 1998 he was appointed chief of staff of the vice minister of Economy. In 1993 Mr. Ruiz joined Argentaria, at the time Spain’s largest bank, as chief economist, and in 1996 he became the director of Strategy, Communication and Investor Relations at Banco Santander. Following the merger of Banco Santander and Banco Central Hispano to form Grupo Santander he was appointed director of Strategy and Analysis in the Latin American Division. A 1980 graduate in Economics from the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Mr. Ruiz has taught as a visiting professor in several Spanish MBA programs and is a regular contributor to publications including El País, Expansión, and Actualidad Económica.

Ernesto Talvi, Executive Director of CERES (Center for the Study of Economic and Social Affairs)

Since September 1997, Ernesto Talvi serves as the Executive Director of CERES (Center for the Study of Economic and Social Affairs), an independent public-policy research institution focused on economic analysis of Latin America, based in Montevideo, Uruguay. He additionally teaches International Economics at the Universidad ORT in Montevideo and is a visiting professor at the Universidad Torcuato di Tella in Buenos Aires. Dr. Talvi is also a special advisor to the Research Department of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), analyzing the impact of global factors on Latin America’s economic performance and developing a macro view of the region in order to assess risks and identify key policy challenges. Dr. Talvi was previously senior research economist at the IDB Research Department from 1995 and 1997 and visiting scholar at the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. Chief economist and head of Research of the Central Bank of Uruguay from 1990 and 1995, he was the chief advisor to Uruguay’s economic policy team and was in charge of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Dr. Talvi is a founding member of the Latin American Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (CLAAF) and has served on the Executive Committee of LACEA (Latin American and the Caribbean Economic Association).

© 2008 Inter-American Development Bank. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions